Forecast-Discussion

000
FXUS65 KABQ 221132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions today with breezy NW flow mixing down for most western
TAF sites in the afternoon. A few more storms are likely to fire up
over the eastern plains today with one or two potentially becoming
severe over the NE, with erratic and strong downburst winds. An
unseasonably strong backdoor cold front will slide into the eastern
plains overnight Thursday into Friday morning bringing NE/E winds
into KTCC and KLVS, reaching KROW around or just after the 12Z TAF
cycle. MVFR to IFR cigs might be possible with the passage of the
front Friday morning, but only hinted at that in the TAFs for KLVS
and KTCC. MVFR/IFR cigs may become more consequential with subsequent
TAF issuances today.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017...
...HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot temperatures will continue through today with some new
record highs likely. Isolated thunderstorms will return to northeast
areas this afternoon, before increasing across the east tonight as a
back door cold front arrives. Some thunderstorms may become severe
across the far eastern plains tonight. The back door cold front will
bank up along the east slopes of the central mountain chain early
Friday, as the sweltering upper high begins to migrate southward.
Northern and eastern areas will therefore begin to experience some
relief from hazardous heat, but western and central valley locations
along and south of I-40 should experience one more day of near record
highs on Friday. The cold front will push westward to the continental
divide Friday night with a moderately strong east canyon wind in the
central valley. In the wake of the front, temperatures will plummet
through Monday and moisture will gradually increase allowing showers
and thunderstorms to become more widespread; especially along and
east of the continental divide. Precipitation coverage will decrease
daily Tuesday through mid week, and temperatures will rebound, as an
upper level trough over the western US steers drier air over New
Mexico.

44

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection should be pretty isolated
along and east of the Sangre de Cristos this afternoon with the
oppressive high remaining centered over the western border of NM
through today. A mid level short wave trough will clip northeast
areas tonight as the back door cold front arrives, bringing a
potential for severe weather to far eastern areas.

Decided to expand the Heat Advisory to Quay County for today, since
they hit criteria yesterday and will likely do so again. Some near
record highs are forecast to linger around Gallup, Socorro, Glenwood
and possibly Albuquerque Friday. However, over all it will be a
cooler day as that upper high begins to nudge south in response to a
broad upper level trough sinking southward over the northern and
central Rockies.

The weekend ahead looks much cooler. Highs should bottom out around
8 to 16 degrees below normal along and east of the central mountain
chain on Sunday and Monday, and within a few degrees either side of
normal farther west. The central mountain chain and southwest
mountains look to have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms
this weekend and Monday. Cells will be increasingly wet by Sunday and
Monday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high will begin to shift south Thursday allowing for
stronger NW winds to reach the NW plateau. This will bring in drier
air and periods of critical fire conditions coupled with Super
Haines for a few hours this afternoon over zones 101-102. Areal
coverage however is not large enough to warrant a red flag warning
at this time. The drier NW flow with a few hours of critical fire
conditions looks to repeat Friday afternoon over the NW plateau.
Overnight recoveries will be fair to good over the east, with fair
to poor over the west tonight, with RH`s improving this weekend.
Temperatures will be near record to record levels one more day today
before falling over the east Friday, and west Saturday. Vent rates
remain excellent over much of NM today, with poor to fair behind a
backdoor front arrives Friday and into next week.

Models continue to show the backdoor front slide into the eastern
plains Friday morning, reaching the central mtn chain in the
afternoon before stalling and battling with the NW flow over western
NM. A few showers and storms are likely along the central mtn chain
Friday afternoon. The front will continue west Friday night after
decoupling and push to the continental divide by Saturday
morning...possibly washing up into extreme eastern AZ. A fairly
potent gap wind is expected through the Rio Grande Valley Friday
night before calming Saturday morning. Mixing hgts take a tumble
behind the front with sfc moisture increasing through at least the
middle portions of next week. This will allow for increased chances
for wetting precipitation over much of NM to the continental divide
each afternoon. Temperatures fall well below normal over the eastern
plains with near normal temps over western NM. The cooler temps and
excellent RH recoveries could mean some mornings of patchy fog
Sunday and Monday over the eastern plains.

The ECM shows another weaker backdoor front over the eastern plains
Monday morning, while the GFS shows persisting southerly return
flow. Given the GFS`s handling of the previous backdoor front its
consistency with Friday`s backdoor, the forecast reflects the GFS
solution for Monday. This means rebounding temperatures over the
east into early next week. Both the GFS and ECM hint at drier
westerly flow rounding the northern periphery of the ridge starting
Tuesday and expanding Wednesday over northern NM...with trapped
moisture continuing daily convection over the southern mtns. Long
range models continue to hint at a weak monsoon-like push into the
Chihuahuan Desert and southern NM for the latter half of next week.

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ501>509-517>521-534-538.

&&

$$

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion