Forecast-Discussion
000
FXUS65 KABQ 042112
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT SAT SEP 4 2010
.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING IN THIS
EVENING/S POP AND WEATHER ELEMENTS. VERY SPARSE AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED FINE BY PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WRF/NAM12
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS ARE
HEALTHIER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AXIS AS WELL...AND SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY SPARK A STRAY STORM. THUS...SOME CHICKEN
10 POPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THIS AREA...AGAINST MY WILL. ANY
CONVECTION WILL MEET A QUICK DEATH AT SUNSET THIS EVENING.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY WITH VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR STRAY CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. OTHER THEME WILL BE
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER
90S WILL BE COMMON WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO
RECORDS ARE FORECASTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT AM ONLY WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO AT A FEW SITES. OTHER THING TO NOTE WOULD BE INCREASED
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED WINDS ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT
SOME HINT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. ANY
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BUT DID INCLUDE SOME VERY LOW 10 POPS IN
THE NORTHEAST AS AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING
TOWARD THE AREA AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS OF THE NATION.
THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND DISCREPANCIES BECOME
QUICKLY AMPLIFIED. NAM/WRF NOW DRAGS THE BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS...CONFLICTING WITH YESTERDAY/S RUN
WHICH STALLED THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MEMBERS ALLOW THE FRONT TO INFILTRATE MORE OF NEW
MEXICO AS WELL...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE NAM/WRF. ALL MEMBERS
EXCEPT THE NAM/WRF ARE ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPSTREAM WAVE
TO ENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...AND NO OTHER MEMBERS ARE AS
BULLISH WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS...LEAVING THE NAM/WRF AS AN OUTLIER. HAVE NUDGED EXTENDED POPS
FOR TUESDAY TOWARD A SOLUTION FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...SHIFTING TO BROADER CENTRALIZED SWATH OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN A QUICK AND VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WOULD SCOUR OUT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD.
52
&&
.AVIATION...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD STORMS OVER THE SW MTS
AND SC MTS WILL DRIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. BRIEF MT TOP OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR VSBYS TO 5SM
ARE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY BENEATH STORM CORES. A LEE TROUGH OVER THE
NE PLAINS MAY INTERACT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CB OR
TWO AROUND 00Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS IS FOCUSING
SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD STORMS ARE
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE SW AND SC MTS...HOWEVER WETTING RAINFALL
FOOTPRINTS ARE VERY SMALL. VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
STATE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW
10 PCT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCALES OVER
THE NW PLATEAU AND THE NE PLAINS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WX FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED
BY HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHICH WILL SOAR TO NEAR
15F ABOVE NORMAL TMRW. MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS A ROBUST SURFACE FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER. HAVE
SIDED WITH THE 12Z MAVMOS GUIDANCE ON WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BEYOND
MONDAY DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN AND EURO.
THE NAM SHOWS A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF SLIDING
NORTH INTO TEXAS TUESDAY...DRAMATICALLY AFFECTING THE OVERALL LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS EASTERN NM.
THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A TROPICAL WAVE NORTH INTO TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A MONSOONAL PLUME OVER WESTERN NM. DEWPOINTS AND THE
LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A PRECIP FREE SUBSIDENCE AREA WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
BTWN THESE TWO FEATURES. HAVE RAISED RH VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD...
FOLLOWED BY MORE DRYING AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS BOTH FEATURES
WELL TO THE EAST.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 92 53 84 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 40 85 40 79 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 44 85 44 81 / 5 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 46 86 46 82 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 46 85 46 79 / 10 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 47 87 47 84 / 10 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 47 85 47 82 / 10 5 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 55 91 55 88 / 10 5 5 10
CHAMA........................... 39 82 39 75 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 85 52 81 / 5 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 50 87 49 82 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 82 39 78 / 5 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 34 75 36 70 / 5 5 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 77 34 74 / 5 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 41 85 42 81 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 43 83 43 79 / 5 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 44 91 45 86 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 51 88 51 83 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 91 54 86 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 90 60 88 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 92 63 90 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 94 58 92 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 93 61 91 / 5 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 93 57 92 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 91 60 90 / 5 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 60 93 60 91 / 5 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 85 49 85 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 51 88 52 87 / 5 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 89 50 86 / 5 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 88 53 84 / 5 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 88 56 87 / 5 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 88 57 89 / 10 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 55 82 56 81 / 10 5 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 48 89 49 83 / 10 0 0 10
RATON........................... 46 92 47 87 / 5 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 48 93 49 88 / 5 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 88 51 85 / 10 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 59 98 59 89 / 10 0 0 5
ROY............................. 54 92 56 87 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 98 60 95 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 96 58 94 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 100 61 96 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 93 56 92 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 94 56 93 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 97 58 95 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 98 59 95 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 95 57 93 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 88 55 87 / 10 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
42/52
NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion
