FXUS65 KTWC 160957
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
256 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture will provide isolated to scattered
valley rain and mountain snow showers into this evening. Expect
mainly dry conditions with a warming trend Tuesday into Thursday. A
couple of storm systems will then bring more valley rain, mountain
snow and much cooler temperatures Thursday night into the weekend.
Some snow may occur to valley floors east of Tucson by Saturday.
.DISCUSSION...The upper low responsible for the wet weather was well
east of the area this morning. Lingering moisture in the wake of the
low will support a few showers today. Otherwise, dry conditions can
be anticipated through at least early Thursday. Thereafter, models
were advertising a series weather systems impacting the region
Thursday afternoon through the weekend and into the early part of
the next week. Mainly cooler and wet weather expected with each
passing system, especially on Saturday.
.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z. A slight chance of valley -
SHRA/mountain -SHSN mainly from KTUS east to the New Mexico border
thru 17/03Z. This will result in occasional MVFR conditions and
perhaps brief IFR conditions with the higher terrain obscured.
Surface wind less than 12 kts, generally variable in direction til
16/16Z and then again after 17/02Z, with a wly/nwly direction
between 16/16Z and 17/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
.FIRE WEATHER...A gradual drying trend will occur early this week,
but lingering moisture will result in a slight chance of valley rain
and mountain snow through this evening. Dry conditions will then
prevail across much of the area Tuesday into Thursday. A storm
system will then bring valley rain and mountain snow Thursday night
through next Saturday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday, followed by some gusty
southwest to west winds Thursday through Saturday as the storm
approaches and moves across the region.
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion