FXUS65 KTWC 040946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A dry forecast is in place through Tuesday before
another storm system moves through the region from Baja Mexico late
Tuesday into Wednesday which will result in a slight chance of
precipitation mainly over the White mountains Tuesday night and


.DISCUSSION...Clouds have cleared out all of southeast Arizona this
morning as the cut-off upper low moves east across far southern
Sonora MX east into Chihuahua MX. Upper ridge expands from the west
of the state today resulting in a sunny conditions, light variable
winds and highs right around early December normals.

Upper ridge sags south Monday as an upper level trof passes by well
north of the state. Expect some high clouds to move across the area
under NW flow aloft. Another but deeper trof will pass through the
Great Basin into the central Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday
bringing a slight chance of snow showers to the White mountains and
gusty SW winds to the rest of the area. Highs Monday and Tuesday
will run 2-4 degrees above normal before cooling 4-6 degrees on
Wednesday. Westerly flow will be over the area Thursday thru
Saturday as weather systems pass by to our north. Highs warming up
to several degrees above normal to end the week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z.
Clr across most of SE AZ thru much of the pd. The exception will be
a few clouds around 6k-10k ft agl SE of KTUS btwn 05/16z and 06/01z.
Sfc wind vrbl in direction less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of snow showers across the
White Mountains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail into next weekend. Some gusty southwest
winds may occur Tuesday, and gusty east winds may occur Thursday and
Friday. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph at other times.





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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion