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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 242055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
155 PM MST Sat Mar 24 2018

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend with high
temperatures dropping into mid 70s by Sunday. A dry weather will
move through the region Monday into Tuesday, which will keep
temperatures a bit cool and winds a bit breezy at times. Warmer
weather return during the latter portion of next week.


An upper level wave crossing Arizona, bringing with it high
clouds, will quickly move off to the east this evening. While
there are some breezy winds out today, speeds are not
exceptionally high and therefore have removed potential of blowing
dust for Southeast California for the remainder of today.

Clearing takes place tonight with seasonable temperatures for
Sunday. Temperatures will continue a gradual downward trend
heading into Tuesday, when the next system is forecast to arrive.
Model suites seem to have a relatively good handle on the system,
which will take a track over the Great Basin and exhibit a neutral
to positive tilt once it arrives in our area. Those factors,
along with antecedent surface dew points in the teens, will not be
favorable at all for precipitation. Most notable impact will be a
reinforcing push of winds and bottoming out of our temperatures.
Given the projected speeds Tuesday on the backside of the low,
continued with the potential of blowing dust primarily along and
west of the Colorado River.

Thursday and into next weekend, large ridge builds over the
West Coast which will warm our temperatures several degrees above
normal. Possible that Phoenix grabs its first 90F day of the
season on Saturday.


South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Expect light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds at 5-8kt
through midday. Then by 19-20Z breezy to very breezy westerly winds
will develop at 10-15kt with gusts of 17-22kt through the early
evening. For tonight through Sunday morning a generally light,
diurnal wind pattern is anticipated. Otherwise skies will be partly
to mostly cloudy with high cloud CIGS this afternoon, and then
scatter out from late afternoon to early evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Expect breezy to windy westerly winds to predominate during the
period with gusts of 22-30kt expected at KIPL and 17-22kt at KBLH
this afternoon and evening. The winds at KBLH should become light
and variable by later tonight. Skies will be partly cloudy with FEW-
BKN high clouds passing across the region.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


Monday through Friday...
A large area of low pressure will affect the Desert Southwest
early next week, but overall dry conditions will prevail. The low
will usher in cooler air with temperatures falling to below normal
levels through Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions will also be an
issue during this time leading to increased fire danger conditions
mainly across southeast California and southwest Arizona as
afternoon humidities drop below 15% both days. High pressure will
then build back into the region during the latter part of next
week bringing much warmer conditions starting Thursday. Winds will
diminish on Wednesday and become fairly light starting Thursday.
Minimum RH values of 10-20% are likely through the end of the


Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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