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Z Outlook
  
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 Forecast Discussion

  
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ACUS01 KWNS 261629
SWODY1
SPC AC 261627

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
MO INTO PARTS OF AR...TN...LA...MS...AND TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IL
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi
Valley.  Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are most probable
from northeast Texas across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana
this afternoon.  Isolated severe thunderstorms may extend as far
north as Illinois/Indiana this afternoon and evening, and into the
central Gulf States during the overnight hours.

...Lower MS Valley...
Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  A squall line
currently extends from south-central MO into northeast TX.  Several
bowing structures along this line will pose a risk of damaging winds
gusts, large hail, and perhaps a QLCS tornado or two this afternoon.
The activity will likely spread into southeast MO and western KY/TN
by early evening, with a continued severe threat.

Farther south, most model solutions suggest that the capping
inversion will slowly weaken this afternoon.  This should help to
allow a few discrete storms to form in the warm sector ahead of the
more organized convective line.  Local VAD and forecast hodographs
in this region continue to support a risk of supercells capable of
tornadoes (some strong) if discrete initiation materializes. 
Therefore will maintain the MDT risk and 15% tornado forecast. 
These storms are expected to track northeastward through the evening
into western/central MS where damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
will remain possible.

Overnight, it is uncertain how far east the organized severe threat
will persist.  Nevertheless, will make no changes to the eastern
extent of the SLGT risk at this time.

..Hart/Smith.. 04/26/2017

$$