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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 091946
SWODY1
SPC AC 091945

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible over the southern Florida
peninsula through early evening, but no severe weather is expected.

...Discussion...

The marginal risk category has been removed for the rest of the
period. A band of pre-frontal, shallow convection with little to no
lightning will continue through southern FL into the early evening.
However, deeper forcing accompanying a low-amplitude, deamplifying
shortwave trough is moving through the Middle Atlantic and will
remain well north of the warm sector. Moreover, the attendant
southwesterly low-level jet is gradually shifting northeastward away
from the peninsula, resulting in weakening convergence and
decreasing 0-2 km hodograph size. These factors along with the weak
thermodynamic environment should limit any further threat for severe
storms.

..Dial.. 12/09/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018/

...Central FL through 18-21z...
A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms is moving eastward across
central FL as of mid-late morning, with a few embedded rotating
updrafts noted.  Clouds are slowing surface heating, but
temperatures have warmed into the low 70s immediately in advance of
the ongoing convection, with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 68-70 F
range.  SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear in excess of
50 kt will maintain a threat for at least isolated/organized severe
storms for the next few hours.  Low-level shear has peaked within
the warm sector, and will begin to weaken by 18z as the primary
midlevel trough and surface cyclone pass to the north of central FL.
Thus, there will be a window of opportunity for a tornado and/or
isolated damaging gusts through early afternoon, with any severe
threat expected to diminish by 21z.

$$