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FXUS63 KLOT 082031
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
231 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Low-level warm air advection is progged to gradually increase
over the area tonight as a 1002 mb surface low tracks eastward
across southern Manitoba and a secondary surface low attempts to
become better defined south of it. Could see some attempts at
renewed stratus development into tomorrow morning as isentropic
lift helps moisten the 800-950 mb layer, but model guidance as
a whole still suggests that low-level saturation won`t be deep
or widespread enough to support the development of drizzle. Even
the overly-moist NAM has trended lower with its degree of low-
level moisture, so have maintained a dry forecast for tonight
into tomorrow.

Warm air advection at the surface should become more apparent
tomorrow as winds turn southerly. In spite of increasing and
thickening upper-level cloud cover, these southerly winds
should help push temperatures into the 40s across primarily
western portions of our forecast area. Farther to the east
(particularly in areas where a relatively deeper snowpack
remains in place), highs will likely only top out in the mid-
upper 30s.

The cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure
center(s) will eventually reach northern Illinois tomorrow
night and track across our forecast area from northwest to
southeast during the overnight/early morning hours. A few
models continue to indicate that there is some potential for
drizzle near/along the front. However, the signal for that in
those models does not look all that robust, and with the
majority of forecast guidance still favoring a dry frontal
passage in the absence of better low-level moisture, have
continued to withhold on a formal drizzle mention in the
forecast grids.

While an initial push of cold air advection behind the front
may stunt diurnal warming attempts in the hours just after
sunrise, it nevertheless still appears that the frontal passage
may occur early enough for increasing quantities of sunshine to
push temperatures back into the 40s across a large portion of
our forecast area once again during the afternoon. Northwesterly
winds will then continue into Wednesday, when high temperatures
are expected to be a bit cooler (though still near to above
normal for this time of year). Dry conditions will also persist
for a while longer as surface high pressure builds into the
region late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Multiple upper-level disturbances are then forecast to track
through the central CONUS during the latter half of the week and
over the weekend. Depending on their exact evolution (and the
location and strength of the aforementioned surface high as it
settles somewhere near or east of our area), our next
opportunities for wintry precipitation may arise -- primarily
focused during the late Thursday-early Friday time frame and
again sometime over the weekend. However, ensemble spread
remains quite vast from Thursday onward, and there are multiple
potential outcomes that keep most or all of the precipitation
west and south of our forecast area over the latter half of the
forecast period. The lower-end chance PoPs offered by the NBM
during the time frame in question thus continue to look
reasonable from this vantage point.

Ogorek

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Key messages for the 18Z TAF period:

* A period of MVFR cigs expected at the Chicago sites and GYY
  this evening

SE winds near 10 kt will occasionally gust to near 20 kt this
afternoon before subsiding to below 10 kt for the night.
Direction will veer to southerly by mid-morning Monday and
remain as such through the end of the period. Expecting largely
below 10 kt during the day Monday but with occasional 11-13
kt`ers.

The signal continues to grow for a period of MVFR cigs around
the lake this evening, namely at ORD, MDW, and GYY. A TEMPO for
MVFR was introduced at these sites in this TAF cycle. Time
window would be the bulk of the evening hours before a return to
VFR is expected near if not prior to 06Z.

Doom

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

&&

$$

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