South West Weather

034
FXUS65 KPSR 271100
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Mon Oct 27 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail throughout the week with
temperatures near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery and objective
analysis show that quasi-zonal flow is still in place across the
region with high pressure to the south. The quasi-zonal flow will
lead to continuing dry conditions and temperatures similar to
yesterday. Heading into tomorrow and Wednesday the aforementioned
high pressure will start to build into our area. This will raise H5
heights to a 587-589 dm range, which in turn will lead to
temperatures warming a couple degrees. Afternoon high temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will warm to 6-8 degrees above normal,
and around 5-6 degrees below the daily records. With high pressure
in place, dry conditions will continue.

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.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
By the end of the week, models show a weak shortwave trough moving
into our region. This weak shortwave will push the high pressure
out of our region resulting in lower heights aloft. H5 heights
are forecasted to fall to around 581-584 dm resulting in a slight
cooling trend of a couple degrees. By the end of the workweek and
heading into the weekend afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to fall back into the mid to upper 80s to near 90
across the lower deserts and in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
the higher terrain. By the end of the weekend and beginning of
next week, global ensembles are in pretty good agreement that high
pressure will start to build back in, which will lead to a slight
increase in temperatures. Either way, temperatures look to remain
above normal with dry conditions continuing for at least the next
10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will continue to follow their typical diurnal tendencies
with speeds generally aob 7 kt. Extended periods of light and
variable to calm conditions are also expected. Skies will remain
mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain largely unchanged today with a slight
warming trend during the middle of the week. Temperatures then
look to cool a few degrees by the end of the workweek and heading
into next weekend. Either way temperatures look to be 4-8 degrees
above normal through the week. MinRHs today will be around 20%
for the lower deserts to around 25% over the higher terrain areas.
Then tomorrow through the remainder of the week, minRHs fall to
10-15% for the lower deserts to around 20% for the higher terrain
areas. Winds over the next week will generally follow their
typical diurnal tendencies with limited afternoon upslope
gustiness. Tuesday afternoon will have the highest wind gusts with
gusts of 20-25 in the Lower Colorado River Valley and across the
higher terrain in the eastern district.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich