South West Weather

615
FXUS65 KPSR 081727
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1027 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through early this
  week, with lower desert highs reaching the lower to middle
  eighties, resulting in areas of Minor Heat Risk.

- A pattern change mid to late week will cool temperatures
  somewhat and may eventually bring rain chances to eastern
  portions of the forecast area by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Over the past 24 hours the cut-off low to our southwest has
progressed well down the Baja Coast with the center of the low
currently positioned approximately halfway down the peninsula.
Today through Tuesday the low will traverse over Northern Mexico
and into Western TX. With the center of the low being so far to
our south, the Desert SW will remain under the influence of
positive height anomalies, with H5 heights ranging between 575-580
dam, in addition, negative PWATs anomalies (~60-90% of normal)
will also be in place through Monday keeping skies mostly clear.
Expect afternoon highs today and Monday in the low to mid 80s
across the lower deserts. Starting Tuesday, cooler afternoon highs
of near 80 degrees are expected across the lower deserts due to
another low pressure system beginning to dive down the West Coast,
lowering heights aloft. These well-above normal afternoon highs
will keep the lower desert areas with Minor HeatRisk through
Tuesday. Minor HeatRisk will mean those extremely sensitive to
heat may experience heat- related health impacts. Staying hydrated
and taking breaks in shaded areas is encouraged, especially
during outdoor events being held over this weekend. Morning low
temperatures will continue to be well-above normal as well,
continuing the trend of Phoenix Sky Harbor flirting with record
warm lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensembles continue to be in good agreement in the next troughing
feature diving down the West Coast starting Tuesday and will
remain off in the Eastern Pacific throughout most of the work
week. However, this feature will bring an increase of high clouds
starting Tuesday with the addition of cooler temperatures as
heights aloft will begin to lower in response by Wednesday. This
will lead to afternoon high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s
mid to late next week in the lower desert areas (still above
normal for this time of year). Though models are not in great
agreement with the PVA and moisture associated with this trough,
some of the deterministic guidance suggest very limited short-
lived rain chances mainly in the eastern portion of the region
Friday afternoon, while other suggest more widespread light
showers later Friday evening into early Saturday morning.
Continued monitoring of how this system will progress later in the
week will be needed. If you were excited about seeing
precipitation, this system will not be the last hope for
precipitation chances as another stronger and better positioned
trough looks to be trailing behind. This could lead to more
widespread precipitation chances across the Desert SW for the
following week, but with this potential system being over a week
out, it is difficult to put too much weight into it at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will
exhibit light and diurnal tendencies with extended periods of
light and variable to calm conditions. Winds speeds at all
terminals will generally be aob 5 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into
early next week. Afternoon MinRHs will range from 15-25% areawide
through Monday, with overnight recoveries generally in a 35-65%
range. Winds will remain light, generally below 15 mph through
Monday, with a northerly fetch. By the middle of the upcoming work
week, a pattern change is expected which will help cool
temperatures several degrees (though they will remain above
normal), increase MinRHs slightly to 20-30%, and bring
occasionally breezy conditions. Late in the week, a weather system
will pass through the region, providing 15-30% chances for
wetting rain over higher terrain areas of the eastern districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Ryan